Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
