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Beijing has deployed its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near remote Japanese territory as China escalates tensions following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the latest activity come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 68 miles from the island.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.