Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
