This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Propels Villa's Surprising Title Charge
It was eight weeks ago that the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while his coach scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a sign or the source for Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. After the in-form star swept in his second to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their opening six games, find themselves a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. History, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, while the wins have stacked up.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games has the team posted an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a club which has put together ten consecutive victories, they appear strangely fragile – however currently the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their talisman to rescue them with some crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened against United.
His opener came from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition had more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential England player.
The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.